The ECRI’s Leading Economic Index has declined over the past year, according to a top economist, indicating a recession warning that has been accurate 90% of the time in the last 120 years.
According to experts, certain areas have shown a decline in GDP growth and job opportunities, which could potentially lead to trouble for the US economy. This is a classic recession warning sign that has only been a false alarm once in the past century.
The co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a business cycle expert, is warning of a potential downturn in the US economy as various warning signs of weakness begin to emerge.
According to the ECRI’s Leading Economic Index, which has a near-perfect track record, the index has declined over the past year. Although the decline has been leveling out in recent months, it is worth noting that a fall in the index has been followed by a recession every time in the past 120 years except when the index decreased after World War II.
The US economy is showing signs of slowing down, which is further compounded by other factors. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to experience a significant decline over the first quarter of this year. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has predicted that the expansion will be just 2.5% over the last three months.
Additionally, the US Coincident Index, which is a growth measurement that includes data from GDP, jobs, and retail sales, has been trending near 0% for the last two years. It has fallen from a high point of around 20% in 2021.
The economy’s weakening is decreasing employment opportunities. The ECRI’s Cyclical Labor Conditions index, which measures “cyclical labor impulses,” has fallen almost 50% in the past few years. According to ECRI’s historical data, this decline is similar to those before the 2001, 2008, and pandemic-era recessions.
Non-discretionary job areas are strong, but the economy is in a tug-of-war between cyclical weakness and external support such as stimulus spending and labor hoarding during the pandemic. Warning signs suggest a recession.
If these supports weaken, it could cause problems. Other economists warn of a potential downturn, as inflation may remain high and the Fed is at risk of keeping rates elevated for longer periods.
There is a higher chance of a recession than an economic expansion, and a downturn with significant job losses may occur before the end of the year, according to top economists.
Proverbs 19:17 He that hath pity upon the poor lendeth unto the LORD; and that which he hath given will he pay him again.
Proverbs 28:27 He that giveth unto the poor shall not lack: but he that hideth his eyes shall have many a curse.
1 John 3:17 But whoso hath this world’s good, and seeth his brother have need, and shutteth up his bowels of compassion from him, how dwelleth the love of God in him?
1 John 3:18 My little children, let us not love in word, neither in tongue; but in deed and in truth.
Read more at: Giving to the Hungry and Poor is Lending to God (transformedbythetruth.com)
Read more at: Scientists warn of looming threat to our food supply (transformedbythetruth.com)
Read more at: Why are Rich people Preparing for the Apocalypse? (transformedbythetruth.com)
Read more at:The World is Preparing for the Apocalypse (transformedbythetruth.com)
Click here to read more articles transformedbythetruth.com