A “meat recession” ahead of the holidays. Online meat delivery company Good Ranchers warned consumers on social media that “a meat recession is knocking and supply is about to be tight” as cattle herd continues to shrink.
“The cattle herd has shrunk due to droughts,” Good Ranchers wrote on its Instagram account. “Our total meat supply for the coming year is down significantly. This is one of the main reasons a meat recession is coming.”
“Walter Kunisch, a senior commodities strategist at Hilltop Securities, said U.S. beef cattle supplies will continue to contract throughout 2023, further pushing up beef prices for consumers “well, the first half of 2024.
We believe an acute and protracted drought in the southwest U.S. is responsible for the increased culling of beef cattle leaving the U.S. structurally short beef cattle and beef supplies.
According to The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the number of cattle moving from the pasture into a feedlot to be conditioned for slaughter in September fell 4% nationwide year-over-year. In certain areas, such as Kansas, it was as high as 11%.
The issue is that this drought has been lingering in key U.S. cattle-producing states in the Southwest, such as Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas, since 2021, according to Kunis.
This means supplies will become even tighter as those ranchers start to rebuild their breeding herds. It takes roughly 19 to 24 months from when a rancher uses a female for breading to when its offspring are ready to be slaughtered.
That, coupled with the higher cost of certain commodities, such as corn and wheat, as well as operating costs, such as fuel and labor charges, is creating “persistent higher cattle prices, which can lead to higher beef prices,” Kunisch said.
Proverbs 19:17 He that hath pity upon the poor lendeth unto the LORD; and that which he hath given will he pay him again.
Proverbs 28:27 He that giveth unto the poor shall not lack: but he that hideth his eyes shall have many a curse.
1 John 3:17 But whoso hath this world’s good, and seeth his brother have need, and shutteth up his bowels of compassion from him, how dwelleth the love of God in him?
1 John 3:18 My little children, let us not love in word, neither in tongue; but in deed and in truth.
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